Bayesian inference on the initiation phase of the 2014 Iquique, Chile, earthquake

We investigate the initiation phase of 2014 M w 8.1 Iquique earthquake in northern Chile. In particular, we focus on month preceding mainshock, a time period known to exhibit an intensification seismic and aseismic activity region. The goal is estimate time-evolution partitioning slip during preparatory mainshock. To do so, develop Bayesian inversion scheme infer spatio-temporal evolution pre-slip from position time-series along with corresponding uncertainty. extract component pre-seismic motion, correct geodetic observations displacement induced by foreshocks. find that accounts for ?20 percents budget. That takes form slow-slip events occurring between 20 5 days before future This not consistent self-accelerating fault slip, model often invoked explain nucleation. Instead, event seems have interacted foreshock sequence such foreshocks contributed arrest slip. addition, observe some evidence late but associated large uncertainties, making it difficult assess its reliability our alone. • Initiation composed Over prior about 60% starts ends might slow-down event. mixture cascade